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 on: Today at 02:13:25 AM 
Started by TIBERIUS - Last post by 805raiderslo
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 on: Today at 01:41:38 AM 
Started by 805raiderslo - Last post by 805raiderslo

Raiders legendary wide receiver Tim Brown will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this August. That's when he will take to the podium in Canton to receive his bust and yellow jacket. The party isn't over there. As Brown told me in an exclusive interview Thursday, he will be receiving his Hall of Fame ring during the team's week eight game in Oakland.

"I'll be getting my ring on November 1st," Brown said. "Not quick enough, but that's the days that the Raiders have said, so I'll be looking forward to that. Not only will I be getting my ring, but the other Hall of Famers for the Raiders will be getting their rings, so we're all excited about that. Should be a great, great day and looking forward to Kay Jewelers and the Hall of Fame with the Ring of Excellence. It should be an incredible day."

This is the third year Kay Jewelers have provided the Hall of Fame rings for the players. But for the first time, in addition to presenting the Ring of Excellence to the Class of 2015, all previous Hall of Famers will receive this ring in addition to their original Hall of Fame ring.

All the rings will be presented in a special ceremony at half time of the game.

Brown will be joined in the 2015 Hall of Fame class by former Raiders executive Ron Wolf. In total the Raiders have 24 inductees in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Other members are Ron Mix, Jim Otto, George Blanda, Willie Brown, Gene Upshaw, Fred Biletnikoff, Art Shell, Ted Hendricks, Al Davis, Mike Haynes, Eric Dickerson, Howie Long, Ronnie Lott, Dave Casper, Marcus Allen, James Lofton, Bob Brown, John Madden, Rod Woodson, Jerry Rice, Warren Sapp, and Ray Guy.

Here is a better look at the Ring of Excellence which the players will be receiving.

 on: May 22, 2015, 10:38:26 PM 
Started by TIBERIUS - Last post by nutmg1

Math Meets Football: Is the New Extra Point a Game-Changer?

May 20 2015

This piece is going to be quick. Very quick. Why? Because I don’t think there’s particularly much to be said. In case you missed it, extra points are being moved to the 15-yard line. What does this mean?

Little to nothing!

But, won’t extra points be significantly harder now that they’re so much farther back? Won’t this incentivize coaches to go for two?

No, and no.

Good data on field goal success rate is somewhat hard to come by, unless you’re looking at ranges of field goals. Lucky for me, a few guys from MIT already did the heavy-lifting for me.

Won’t field goals be significantly harder now, being so much further back? Won’t this incentivise coaches to go for two? No, and no.

In their paper “Going for Three: Predicting the Likelihood of Field Goal Success with Logistic Regression”, Torin K. Clark, Aaron W. Johnson and Alexander J. Stimpson do just as advertised and come up with a model for field goal success based off of a number of conditions, including distance, field type, precipitation, altitude, temperature and wind condition.

However, for our purposes, let’s assume it is a typical day (temperature above 50 F, no rain or snow, winds lower than 10 MPH and altitude less than 4,000 ft). To compensate for the ideal conditions we have placed here, we will also assume that we are on a grass field surface, which has a lower field goal success rate in the model.

Under these prescribed conditions, the model looks as follows:

P(field goal success) = 1 / 1+ e^- (5.953-.106xdistance)

Where the distance is the distance of the kick, in yards.

Based off this model, field goals at the two-yard line have a success rate of 98.1 percent. However, at the 15-yard line, the success rate is only 92.8 percent.

For context, let’s compare this to the likelihood of two-point conversion success. Between the years 1994 and 2012, 1,469 two-point conversions were attempted, with 658 successful. This results in a success rate of 44.8 percent. This is a significantly long time period to use as an estimate, and this does not account for and remove aborted kick attempts. So, let us look to Brian Burke of Football Outsiders, who did just that. According to Mr. Burke, after removing aborted kick attempts, the success rate for two-point conversions between 2000-2009 was 47.9 percent.

Baltimore Ravens v Pittsburgh Steelers

It doesn’t take a probability theorist to know that the expected points (the sum of each possible point outcome times the likelihood of each occurring) of the two-point conversion is now higher than that of an extra point kick:

E(two-point conversion) = 2x.479 + 0x(1-.479) = .958 points
 E(extra point) = 1x.928 + 0x(1-.928) = .928 points

It’s simple math, right? The expected points for two-point conversions is greater, so of course all 32 NFL teams are going to do away with extra points and go for two every time, right?

Not so fast.

Just because the expected points of one endeavor is greater than the other, doesn’t mean it is what coaches are going to do.

Why? Because, as you might have surmised at some point, NFL coaches are risk averse. Coaches like low variation, and a difference of .03 expected points per extra point is not nearly enough to deter them from the safer choice of going with a slightly longer kick (which has variance of .07) as opposed to the much riskier two-point conversion (which has variance .25).

There may be some who embrace the new system and take advantage of this opportunity, but my guess is most won’t.

Also, if you’d like to peruse an article measuring the risk-averse nature of NFL coaches based off onside kicks, check out this paper written by a John Urschel much older and wiser than me.

I guess it runs in the family.

John Urschel / Advanced Stats Columnist

All of the media and pundits keep saying this change is no big deal.  I think its going to be HUGE!!!  Everyone keeps saying they make 98% now and make 92% from the 15. 

That being the case 8% of the PAT's are going to be missed next season. 

Everyone is focusing on the 92% that will be made.  What I think is important is how the games will change after the 8% are missed.  Its the butterfly effect.  After a missed PAT as long as the score is close all coaching decisions are changed. 

I think this change is long over due.  I wish it was moved back to the 25 instead. 

 on: May 22, 2015, 09:39:20 PM 
Started by TIBERIUS - Last post by ghostmech
Thank you to all my fallen brothers and sisters and to all fellow Veterans for serving.


 cheers  Back at ya "One!" 

... and a slow hand salute to all that paid the ultimate price ...God rest their souls.

 on: May 22, 2015, 09:38:30 PM 
Started by TIBERIUS - Last post by nutmg1
I feel like there is a big difference this season.

JDR and Norton both have pride and rep in the league.  Their swagger is real and that means allot.  I think Shell had it the first time around but other than that Hue Jackson was the only coach we've had since Gruden with this kind of juice since the old days.  

I've been around here a long time and most years I'm not optimistic at all.  This season I think we have something to look forward too.  

I was hoping for a crazy Defensive draft but with the additions at OL, RB, WR and the coaching staff I think our D is going to get much needed help in the form of points on the board.  I think we can score 27 or 28 pts a game.  

Time will tell but this year they've earned our attention.  

 on: May 22, 2015, 09:30:54 PM 
Started by TIBERIUS - Last post by The one
Thank you to all my fallen brothers and sisters and to all fellow Veterans for serving.


 on: May 22, 2015, 05:52:23 PM 
Started by TIBERIUS - Last post by Raider 8
Maybe if Norvell Turner, Art Shell, Lance Kiffin, Cable, Allen, etc. didn't say the same stuff then it would be easier to believe. I think we're turning things around, but the team still has to go prove it before it's true. Until it correlates to wins its just talk. And like the saying goes "don't talk about it, be about it". Be about winning and fans won't be talking about culture.

Name one of those guys who had prior HC experience, or even have the tenure in the league that JDR has now... That alone changes culture... the culture of having inexperienced HC's and shitty staffs...

Art Shell is the only one, but does he really count?  His 1st move was hiring Tim Walsh...

There have been plenty of coaches with experience that haven't succeeded at their next jobs. That's where the term retread comes from. For our sake hopefully jdr and the ingredients around him equal success. But I can't fault any fan for being skeptical, we've heard it all before. It's been 12 years or so. We needs some wins to hang our hats on, the chatter doesn't do it anymore.

Nobody ever says "our culture sucks and we're going 0-16 this year"

If we had only been going through this for 2 or 3 seasons the sentiment would be different, but it's been so long some fans just think we're cursed.

Let's make this easy...

When you hear them speak of culture, what do you think they are speaking of?

Have we not been drafting differently (effectively)?  Gone are the days of drafting H/W/S guys instead of Football players...  We've moved on from scholarship players, "the fastest guy in the draft" picks, head scratching, WTF picks... I say that's a change in "culture"... wouldn't you?

The scouting department was completely overhauled.  The way they evaluate talent, scout talent, hunt talent has been completely revamped...  Changing the culture on HOW you find players, also changes the culture of the players you find... High Character, FOOTBALL players...

Before RM got here, their admin building was operating on old ass computer equipment/software... That was the first thing they addressed when he took over...  I think that can help change the "culture"... Giving the admin side of your team a much needed boost in technology... It's like going from dial-up to 100mbps...

We hired some type of new "genius" strength and conditioning guy, who uses concepts no one else uses... who trained a majority of top 10 picks over the last few years.  Changing the way you condition, diet, train your players could assist in changing the "culture"...

On top of that we're building a 40M training facility, so the ways the guys will train and condition themselves will change dramatically... even their attitudes in doing so, knowing that we finally entered the 21st century in terms of facilities...  That could change the "culture" and attitude around the locker room, wouldn't you say?

We hired the best Special Teams coach in the league, I'm sure he does things a little differently (or better) than the bums we've had over the years... His experience can go a long way in changing the "culture" around here..

Speaking of experience, We have over 100 years of playing (at a high level) and coaching (HC) experience on our staff, ...  That is something we have NEVER had...  Our last staff consisted of a rookie HC, a rookie DC, and one of the worst OC's in the league...  I'm sure those years of experience can affect the "culture" of your team... You know, having coaches who were actually GOOD players in this league, Hall of Famers even, Super Bowl Champions even...  on your staff...  Yea, I think that can boost a "culture" change...

Like I said, you guys keep focusing on the wins and losses... and completely overlooking the steps you have to take to GET there... Before you can start "winning" you have to change the "culture" in which your team operates, prepares, competes, etc... It's not an overnight process... but since RM has taken over, he's slowly (but surely) been changing the culture here... and the hire of JDR (and staff) just gave us a significant boost (flip) in culture...

This team is nothing like any of the losing teams we have had in the past... from top to bottom...

A "culture change" must occur before you "see wins"... That's a definite...

It's more than just JDR coming in and "saying all the right things"...  If you guys can get past the words and see the ACTIONS... it might help you see my perspective...

Yeah, all that stuff is culture, and I hope it has changed and it leads to wins, but theres 31 other teams saying the same shit. Somebody is full of shit because somebody is going to pick first next year. Lovie Smith probably said the culture was great last preseason, then proceeded to go 2-14.

But i do like the changes we've made, JDR and Norton. The draft, most of free agency. Lets hope it gets us to the playoffs

 on: May 22, 2015, 04:51:26 PM 
Started by TIBERIUS - Last post by ElevatorRaidersfanPA
Here here!  Have a Happy and safe Memorial Day!  Thank you to a the current and past Vets!

 on: May 22, 2015, 03:28:37 PM 
Started by TIBERIUS - Last post by varaider
Then let's fucking hope JDR can be added to the list.

Do I have to post all the other HC failures, or will you give me the courtesy?

Indeed, let's hope...

And hell no to the other failures, I'm sure it probably quadruples that number, at least... lol...

 on: May 22, 2015, 02:37:09 AM 
Started by RaiderInDenver - Last post by TIBERIUS
The Cable guy use to be HC there.

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